/SMG/ Stock market general

begun the clone wars have

yes but who is the master, and who is the apprentice

We are approaching fair market evaluation, but not quite yet. Still have a little ways to drop.

I think we've got at least another 10-20% before the bottom. The layoffs haven't started yet and real estate is still overvalued.

Heh I was in long term bonds too.

After Trump one he supported him and made visits to the White House. So he probably knew tariffs were going to be more severe.

I made a year's salary today but I'm so desensitized to options at this point that I don't even feel anything.

But of course.

I can't believe we dumped so hard today wtf tariffs aren't even in effect let some earnings come in fr fr options are supposed to expire on fridays like have some moderation in your bleeding

Then do something nice over the weekend to see if you still feel.

Thread theme:
youtube.com/watch?v=8AHCfZTRGiI

Is anyone still green for the year? I'm still green but not by much just 800 bucks

it depends what you think is fair valuation
median S&P500 P/E is 15x, we are at 19.1x currently (5062 / 265)
if we were to hit median, this would be 3975 SPX, another 21% down - assuming that earnings did not fall at all
looking at the 2008 recession, earnings fell by 56.8%
I don't think this will happen, but earnings are sure to fall
Consumer spending has been propped up by the top 5% wealth holders, where due to the bubble they have seen their networth sky rocket, massive wealth effect where they have been spending like crazy
Now they will cut back on spending, resulting in decreased demand, resulting in decreased earnings, resulting in increased layoffs and decreasing new orders; in addition the decreased demand will cause disinflation where the rate of earnings will decrease
We are certain to have bear market rallies along the way
And almost certainly the Fed will restart QE and there will be massive stimulus spending and tax cuts

I've been red since September. By blind luck I should be doing better, but God hates me.

How is next week going to play out? Another blood bath of epic proportions, markets down 25% by Friday close?

No one knows and its great!

I almost bought SOXL a couple weeks ago. Thank fuck I didn't do that.

I am, but substantially less so.

The market was overvalued.

The US Stock market has lost around 7 TRILLION since Wednesday.

Over 11 Trillion since Trump took office

Based, lets fuck over another 50 trillion

Tman is probably going to do a just kidding teehee over the weekend just for shits and giggles

Where did that 7 trillion go though?

Why are they on a sports field?

Nowhere. It was all made up money.

More coping = more domping. Simple as.

orange man can't do this to me, he is delaying the new Nintendo Switches! AAAAAAAAAAAAA

Im sitting on my balcony getting sunshine. Be back in a bit, will try to think of some nice anime girls to make if i dont just take a nap. Today's action struck me as unusual and it is hard to explain, but there was way too much whipsawing and strange etf voodoo for me to believe it was panic selling or something intended to go on for several more days. Who knows what's gonna happen, but if futures are lower on monday we'll get 3 gaps down in a row on the index charts, and if i remember correctly thats a buy signal in technical analysis land, japanese name for it i forget now. May that not even happen though, hoping sunday night futures are bright green and everyone can start feeling better and the diplomats can make deals. We are never bringing back all the manufacturing from asia that is a ridiculous notion. The goals here are something entirely different from old school protective tariffs. It is diplomatic hardball and i hope we can hit a homerun. Feels like a two strike count at the moment though ngl

See:

$450 tablet

$90 games

This is the exact moment that the Japanese became the new jews.

Nintendo has always been expensive.

-5.29%

T.. thank you.

I'm buying it anyway because I love yoshi.

-6% including AH

Hope you have plans and aren't buying shitstocks.

Anyone watching (not paying for) the Minecraft movie

wtf I'm up 1.5%

looking at everything in pic related, it seems a lot more likely that 5000 SPX holds in the short run
it is a lot more likely that we rally here in the short term, back to within the average true range
however with that said, due to the extreme negative gamma exposure and the 500 put wall, if we do continue to sell off, it will be particularly nasty as the negative gamma will reinforce the move to the downside
I also highly expect that over the weekend geopolitical news will break that XYZ country and the US are making a deal re: tariffs, or tax cuts; or some other news will be manufactured to try and stabilize the markets
today was peak fear - in general, it's more likely that people settle down over the weekend and shake it off
I am still bearish longterm, but we have now reached extreme fear, very oversold, where probability wise it is more likely to have a flat or green day on Monday
I would not be surprised either if we sold off Sunday open into premarket, and then we rally and close flat / green
I think that the 500 SPY put wall will hold as support

You couldn't pay me to watch that garbage.

I gotta a joke for you all...

SOXL

Yeah the floor is bound to fall out a bit as the market adjusts to the new reality the tariffs are putting us in and banks have been more and more cautious about over leveraging, so I agree and don't think we will 2008 levels of collapse.
I still think the market is overreacting, that said I am not buying anything right now and waiting until the dust settles. I think things would need to get much worse before the Fed steps in. Tax cuts are a certainty, but I doubt we will see much stimulus spending.

There will be no more stimulus and no more QE. Tariffs are inflationary and the government is broke. The printer is broken.

8.83

it'll pump monday

Markets on monday

youtu.be/dMJ0aacwbrE?si=ulsDIdumkYZVDIdR

Yeah after the 15:1 reverse split.

JPMORGAN SAYS IT NOW PROJECTS A US RECESSION IN 2025

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHA

Priced in. Right?

wow

Priced in. Right?

oh it's all priced in brother
we are surely at the bottom, and also the recovery has already been priced in, so it won't go up either
it's just gonna be a flat line

someone will say something over the weekend to trigger the relief rally™. Those are the rules

so silly,
oh the stock market (NUVIDIA AND FACEBOOK) went down another 1%? that's another 10% recession risk...
down another 1%? that's another 10% recession risk...

imagine selling $233M of stock and then 6 weeks later forecasting a recession

imagine

2017 levels

I love LETFs now

because I love yoshi.

Did you play every other Yoshi game?

I did think it was very sus last year when boomer billionaires like warrent buffet, bezos, zuckerberg etc. were selling shitloads of stocks last year in Q3/4. They saw that shit coming miles away and now its here.

someone will say something over the weekend to trigger the relief rally™. Those are the rules

there will be dead cat bounce for sure
not sure when it will happen, but I don't think it'll last
as much as the market has already dropped, I think it'll drop more after the dead cat bounce
and probably bottom out sometime in 3-6 months, when all the tariff craziness has been settled and decided one way or another

Stocks for discount stores like Dollar Tree were greening up today

Oh hohohoho now THAT'S a recession indicator right there along with gas prices going down lmao

JPM is about to gobble up a bunch of smaller banks with the fed's backing. They love this shit

Naturally.

MSM is working overtime to fearmonger over the global economy

Journalism is dead. It's literally a jobs program at this point.

its honestly the best quote of any politician in the last 10 years at least

Friday night

What can I get you, anon?

May this be a lesson: the stock market is for semites not stupid goyim. If you don’t own a fully paid off house you have no business being in stocks. If you have a Net worth less than one million you do not belong in the stock market. You will not get rich quick. You won’t even get rich. You will get endlessly rugged until you kill yourself

-18% is how it went.

he held

after being warned

multiple times

he doesnt

trade in and out

No fuckinig shit Vanguard called this 2 years ago.

Dead cat bounce tomorrow!

Are the fryers on in the kitchen?

i am the "still not selling" image

The market has TDS

real estate is still overvalued.

Always will be

it's lent so i'll have a pint cheers

we are so b-ACK!

Yeah but it's like 10x overvalued if it has a house on it right now.

Just imagine your a woman reading Twitter and you'll know what the market will do.

i was making so much money
open the casino goddamnit

I am still slightly in the green but when the Honk Kong Market opens Monday I will suffer losses equivalent to multiple years of wageslavery. Chester was right... It doesn't even matter.

Businesses probably already ran out of stored stock so let's fucking go and watch the rates rise

Give me a root beer, thanks pal.

Sorry, I work tuesday-saturday. I'll have a glass of milk in your name monday.

thank you based bloomp for giving me a 33% discount on everything

If you don't watch this clip you won't understand what is happening in the market.

x.com/Rust_And_Decay/status/1908262360047116547

Today was a capitulation bottom right bros?

Anon Babble essemgee said it's bad to buy the dip tho

The bottom 50% aren't losers.

But they are, that's why they're at the bottom.

no
got to wait
till tomorrow
wen i get my
WMT
pickup order
of all beef hot dogs
and
TATER
FUCKING
TOTS
O
T
SHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEIT THEY ARE GUD

in muh
AIR FRYER

Been selling out of gold for the past few weeks. Was like 10% equities and just starting to take cute little licks here and there. Made a solid 4% gain intraday on Target before the Vietnam fold. Epic win. Loaded up on bonds but they keep dumping between open and close. I welcome it, gives me more time to watch and accumulate. I think I'm more than 50% bonds now, bit of cash bit of gold, bit of equities, and my house obviously. Judging by my real estate shorts today I think that will dump in value pretty soon hehe. Plus I ordered 20kg of new crop Asian rice this week. I think I'll sell the grains for a cent a pop or so.

anon those are made with sneed oils

ye
i only get em
about once
a moonth

story on the news about a 7yo boy who was saving up for a Switch but decided to donate his money to the animal shelter instead

kek probably ragequit when he realized he wouldn't have enough for the Switch 2

I think they are just trying to find a reason to hate trump

I just can't go anywhere without hearing "I'm buying like crazy, everything is so discounted!"
Absolutely no fear yet, makes me think we have a long way to go towards true bottom.

But they are, that's why they're at the bottom.

Don’t you have some bottles to pick up off the beach right about now?

it doesn't feel as bad as a breakup, but this week I lost so much money that I realize that the life I thought I was building will never exist

off the beach

Anon... We don't have beaches here, you pick bottles from public trash containers.

How much?

$75000

You were warned and yet you did nothing.

but this week I lost so much money that I realize that the life I thought I was building will never exist

Same, but I don't fucking care I'm still saving most of my salary, living like a gypo and investing everything, either it all goes to heaven or it all goes to hell I don't give a shit. Never give up.

pavlov dogs
gonna pavlov
till they realize
the reward system
that hypnotized them
has failed
intentionally
to narrow their capital
and force them
into new
activities

they hope
to find support
in bringing others
with them

Kicking a brother while he's down.

Shame on you.

hey... come on now. Youre making me feel like a bad person.

You can recover from this anon. I believe in you. It's just a setback.

I was mocked for three years while I told everyone that this was a bubble that would eventually evaporate away and take their life savings with it. I continued to be mocked for the last six months even as I had a firm date for the crash beginning at the end of March 2025. They mocked me even as the market began to tank. No, anyone who is losing money right now despite my best efforts to help them deserves what is happening.

an eternal one. I can only invest $20k per year with my current expenses and salary. Only way I can make it back is if I get huge gains on 3x etfs on margin, which can just as easily send me to zero

I was mocked for three years

Yeah, because the market is higher than it was 3 years ago. Like I get it It's a bubble and all, but my chink shit that isn't a bubble shouldn't have gone -10% in one day. FUCK!

Bro I lost 10k euros, it will take me 3-4 years to save that up, I'm not giving up neither should you.

Keep "kicking", nigger permabulls deserve it for that. Payback is always fair play.

you are demoralized.
yes. the market is hard. very hard. actually one of the hardest things you can do.
thats how it is.
problem with you and most other people is that each time, you just don't put in the work.

maybe just buying the sp500 is not enough maybe just buying bitcoin is not enough for at least 2 years into the future.
maybe putting a stop loss is good but if you do this too often, you will get scalped by market makers.
maybe not hedging your bets is just not enough.
last time i talked to you you were a smug little punk.
this is what smug punks get. reality catches up to them in the end.
it happened to me and it happened to you.
difference is, it happened a few times and i understood that it was either going all-in with my time to do this shit like a professional or i might as well do something else.

whatever. i'm not going to put salt in your wounds but 99% of people just underestimate what it takes of them.

that dude shorted VIX one day early

had a nap. was gonna make fun anime girls but i had bad dreams. x-men, ex-lovers, and being excluded from the party. woke up and things got worse, started thinking about the stock market and going over my fears, what if this just keeps going? i really don't know, i think i know what it's about but do i really, and is there ever going to be a resolution? are we really getting the argentina treatment? started thinking about some other stuff too. painful memories. women have hurt me before i'll just say that. i'll try to cheer up. it is the weekend and i'd like to talk to my crush. i'm happy i've got a new hobby in trading, but it's distracting me from what i really want to do, hoping to make up time this weekend, but your life seems fuller than mine, rarely see you outside market hours. missing you now. i'll cheer up and say something nice later, maybe something funny. sorry about this, needed to vent and i don't have a therapist or a financial advisor, two things i probably do need. crypto seems to have withstood today's terror, as did homebuilders and related stocks, makes one optimistic for the country. think it was a 90% downside day, negates the bullish 90% days we had in mid march unfortunately. we can probably look forward to one or two mega green days at the resolution of this whole thing that are even better than purim+st. patricks day on the other hand.
youtube.com/watch?v=9E6b3swbnWg

was wolverine there?

i dont care what he did.
he probably thought "just need to get lucky once"
after that, it doesnt matter if its shorting the vix or buying bitcoin on 10x leverage with your whole stack.

no the guy that shoots lasers from his eyes and he kept zapping my butt

i could short tsla 10x and my face would get ripped off in the end too.
i could go long apple 5x and the same thing will happen in the end.
it always does.

or buying over-priced options all the time like some pajeets until you run out of money.

because its just not how it works.

The market is about, buying good shit for cheap and having the patience to wait and watch it reverse. If you don't buy good shit you lose, if you don't buy for cheap you lose, if you can't wait for it to reverse you lose.

Trump having gay sex with his own butt.

thats the Warren Buffe(r) approach.
you could probably work your way up with 10k if you do it properly using that method.
i've seen guys here with 100k accounts blowing up 30k in a day.
what do you want to do with these guys?

I peed on your sneed.

anyway thats like patience++
i respect guys who can pull it off.

for me its different. i have a knack for tinkering and i'm severely impatient so i'm building an automated system. to each their own.
my pnl is flat today.

ok now that's funny
more posts like this

frens
are we both going to flip bullish at the same time?
i'm thinking we will bro
already have TKR (buyer at $45) and APH (still WAY too expensive) on the list, will look into ADM this weekend. still alot of research on companies to do. those that survive of course. and assuming i'll have a stack of cash from the insane trading i plan on doing (He won't.)
nooticed NKE, GME, homebuilders, and casinocurrency + MSTR. in the case of casinocoin, i would say that points to short term bottom but it just doesn't FEEEEEL like it. still have 108k as the always all time high. reminder that WKEY and LAES aren't real and you should give up markets until you find out why. chopin good
youtube.com/watch?v=GUN4ocfSzTs
i was uh. just kidding about CT. haha lol
eyes on ZW now though

how's travis doing?
is bramble jam recession proof?

What did you mean by this? Did I miss a reference?

i've seen guys here with 100k accounts blowing up 30k in a day.

what do you want to do with these guys?

Fuck leverage fuck options, for most of us there is no quick way to get rich quick, there's only suffering and sacrifice.

I was impatient myself, but it caused me to miss out on 100% gains so I am more patient now. But to each their own, whatever works for you.

i stopped playing around with commodities as my broker just has prohibitive costs.
i just do it without feeling ripped off every 24h.
the fucking funding fees.
and its not like you can scalp it either when the commissions are so high.

if i had access to cme and 100k for the purpose, then maybe.

fucking cfd scammer brokers can go fuck themselves. i'm never opening another trade. what a waste of time.

i had a pleasant surprise today as i was under 200lbs for the first time in at least a decade
sorry for blogpost

*i just cant do it without feeling ripped off.

if you are a spreader then its extra expensive so fuck them especially much.

wkey + laes aren't real

i promise not to be too smug when they 10x

Im right there too. Need to lose 30 lbs.

you should really find a proper broker with proper futures contracts with margin rebate on spreads (span margin) if you want to trade commodities.

alright that was a bit harsh, i know it's a small position (good job keeping it small, CHWY anon blew up because of this). and i commend the INTC-level conviction because i think that same conviction would serve you really well in an actually good trade. i know you made your money in quantum scamstocks which is why i want you to look into this seriously. also don't let me lecture you, i'm poor.

California wants countries to exempt them from tariffs

Are they retarded? Trump should fuck over California with more tariffs kek

i don't, i just watch. when i do i'll remember this though thank you.

d-wave is not a scam. i will admit rigetti is. "quantum" computing is real. it's quantum theory that is nonsense but it doesn't matter. you can compute with magnetic matrices.

i only have like cad$20k worth of loblaw stock but it feels nice regardless in this sea of red

youtube.com/watch?v=DakgjpHERnM

Well I finally decided to watch Daredevil Born Again.

TLDR, I had zero interest in comic book heroes with no superpowers. Saw Netflix series years ago, LOVED that shit so much I read the comics like born again, was an amazing read. Now Born Again show....I like it, thought it would suck major ass like Echo did but much better so far.

However I cannot help but think its inferior in a bunch of ways. That bank robbery episode literally felt like a fucking anime filler lol.

it doesn't feel as bad as a breakup, but this week I lost so much money that I realize that the life I thought I was building will never exist

Are you 65 years old and going to retire 2 years from now? If you have 20+ years before retirement then you should be fine.
and you only lose money if you sell
don't panic sell, this is something that everyone tells you. So as long as you hold on, your shit might come back.
especially if it's index funds. SNP500 and QQQ will almost certainly come back.

I can only invest $20k per year with my current expenses and salary.

if you can invest 20k per year, you are far ahead of 90% of people. You'll be fine

Only way I can make it back is if I get huge gains on 3x etfs on margin, which can just as easily send me to zero

Buy VOO and set it to cruise. it beats 90% of all other options. It should be your baseline, and the core of your portfolio. That, or something similar.
It's what I'm buying now, since I don't know what will beat the market. I know the SNP500 will recover, and buying VOO will work and make me money in the long run. And there's about a 90% chance it will beat anything I come up with alternatively.

the sp500 is actually pretty cool.
half of you already know this but for those who dont:
sp500 is a trading strategy in and of itself. a ranking strategy run by the kikes at standard and poors.

its not the most sophisticated strategy but it definitely is something. so many funds and manager that fail to beat it is proof that they do at least something right.

the problem is that there is no protection from drawdowns so its a huge pain for so many people from time to time.

an ex of mine got picked up by tom waits one time while she was hitchhiking. she was such a great girl. we hitchhiked together one time too, fun adventure. she was a vegetarian, i wasn't at the time, i made her cry once because i wouldn't stop using name brand shampoo, she was opposed because it is tested on animals. she was so good to me and loved me so much. she never hurt me. i was wrong for her though and she couldn't fix me.
youtube.com/watch?v=_VgL_gbz3xs

You won’t even get rich. You will get endlessly rugged until you kill yourself

you'll only get rugged if you're fucking retarded and panic sell, or buy shit that underperforms the market in search of secret hidden gains that no one else can see but you.
And maybe you can do that. If you can, good luck to you
but 90% of investors don't beat the market, and the more you trade the more likely you are to lose money.
If you just take that into consideration, you'll beat 90% of all your friends and all money managers.

sp500 is a trading strategy in and of itself. a ranking strategy run by the kikes at standard and poors.

I mean you can call it that, but it's just market cap weighting. That just means the large caps get more weighting proportionate to how big the market cap is.
It makes it nice for passive investing because you don't need to rebalance it ever. So it's sort of the default "buy and hold" sort of strategy.
If you're active trading, you can do something else and it should be fine unless you're retarded.

its not the most sophisticated strategy but it definitely is something. so many funds and manager that fail to beat it is proof that they do at least something right.

the problem is that there is no protection from drawdowns so its a huge pain for so many people from time to time.

I mean, that's the stock market
As an asset class, it beats nearly every other kind of investment over the long term. It has the best returns, and certainly the best potential for bigger returns
but it also has short term risk.
Every now and then, the market crashes, goes down by 20-30%, and bonds kick its ass for that year because they get a boring 5% return (and probably go up as people flee to safety).
Then the market recovers, and destroys that 5% bond yield.... until the next crash
It is what it is. Higher risk, higher return.

They need to go back to plebbit. That said, we haven't even begun to dip.

this image made my pp go boing

my only gripe with the stock market is that so many pensions are based on it.

at some point, the kikes convinced everyone that it was a good idea to put your pension in fucking stocks of all things instead of just putting them away into a mix of gold and cash or something.

i love capitalism but would i love getting my savings wiped once a cycle because some smug banks or cta or hedge funds decided it was time or some politician decided something.

if people didn't have their pensions in stocks then there wouldn't be such fucking drama with these tariffs even. most people would probably shrug it off. companies that don't adapt get wiped and thats it.
except its not only some traders or investors that get wiped. its also pension funds and all kinds of people who shouldn't be touching the markets.

US stock exchange

everything heemd by foreign import "tarrifs"

are there any public ally traded US companies even?

spend tomorrow with me.

are Californians retarded?

Yes.

1920s parallels
not to the same extent given a lot more people were farmers, but still there

just dollar cost average, bro

just risk everything and go all in, bro

just buy dividend stocks, bro

The idea is, when the market goes tits up this time due to massive fraud and overleveraging, the bailouts won't be to the shitheels who got us in this mess, it'll be to save our parents' pensions. The shitheels getting richer instead of drawn and quartered is just an unavoidable side effect, goy.

going to the gym. i'll be back later. i'm free this weekend so if anyone has any dreams they want to talk about or personal problems, i'm here to help. gonna be strategizing for what to trade monday, trying to predict how the index lines will move throughout the day, that sort of thing. ambitious to do well on my lifts tonight, want to get to 170 bench or more before my mom leaves on vacation. by the way babe i CAN fix you, i don't know exactly what you need but i'll find out what it is.

good work anon

so we are bouncing off the 500sma Monday right?

if only you knew how the market exploits pension funds and the kinds of crap they buy and what kind of fees these managers pay.
and if you knew how much they don't even care...

pension funds are basically run by idiots and so they get exploited.

AM I MORE THAN YOU BARGAINED FOR YET

kek

how much they don't even care

lol why would they.
depending on when the fed steps in to restore 'COOOOONFIDEEEEEEENCE' they may not even get fired

youtube.com/watch?v=xjNIa8WMoXE

breaking

to combat tarrifs and save the European union they have announced a plan to import 1 billion niggers over the next 4 years.

to fund the transformation taxes will have to be raised by another 6 million percent.

receive moderate windfall in december

be retarded

ask /SMG/ for advice

"dude just buy growth funds"

bought the absolute top

"I'll just weather the storm"

get fired from job today

no one is hiring in my field

might have to sell at a loss

I voted for this

What day(s) I want to compare it to stocks

Sorry to hear anon, valuable life lessons here and you'll come out stronger than ever.

investing money when you have no sizeable savings or job security

oof, but selling at a loss isn't the worst thing
I've been taught that lesson time and time again myself

youtube.com/watch?v=zMf9XDQBAaI

caution if you are on medications or if you are jewish or both.

FSPGX december 13th
thanks fren, needed that

the real fun is when we are on the other side of this and everyone is saying, "lol, why didn't you buy?"

I'm a bobo and I bought. Even for me that was too extreme

I promise to tell /smg/ when I think it's the bottom.

I'm not close to flipping bullish. I would need to see some pretty extreme changes that I don't think are going to happen this year.

nobody wants to admit it but November 2022 is the bottom.

Remember to slurp when despair peaks. I can't wait to scoop up PLTR and NVDA on the cheap

We'll probably get a bull trap at those levels before going lower. It's been too long since we had a real crash to clear the system out.

As you look at your portfolio today, please remember that earthly desires are the root of all suffering. When Trump declared "Liberation Day," what he meant was liberation from material possessions.

My -80% ytd loss on SOXL is just a message from Bodhisattva Don, a lesson on how to break the karmic wheel of samsara.

fuck.
i never looked at soxl. it looks nasty.

can someone explain why americans are obsessed with leveraged etfs?
is it because you are not allowed to open margin accounts or something?

i nooticed something else
USDCNY has been relatively VERY calm throughout all of this, and if it breaks either way it would be really bad, right?
goes hard frfr nigga
me either, i'm just trying to think of it well in advance and get some names together. until then i'll be trying to trade this. i'm saying we're probably gonna be callin this shit together (again, again). i wasn't as vocal about this dumpening as you even though i doubled down last week. you'll be my coincident indicator which will reinforce my existing conviction... again
they have american style options chains

inb4 You can't buy leveraged ETF options!

lmao

In all seriousness I didn't have much SOXL, only about $15k. I'm bigger on the broader market ones following the S&P and the nasdaq, although they're obviously also having a rough time right now. SOXL is more of a gamble, there's no certainty in semiconductors going up.

Anyway I like the leveraged funds because they're simple, and because I personally do not have to take out any debt for it. I could open a margin account if I wanted but it's more work to manage those investments. My style is just to come in every month or so to rebalance the portfolio.

Markets still on EXTREME FEAR

This is it, the TRUE bear market has begun

If the markets keep getting FUKT like this all year I am going to run out of animes getting railed.

I'm currently planning to roll over to further OTM puts on late mover tickers in early 2026 for the second leg down, barring something extreme happening before then. I'm trying to stick to long term capital gains as much as possible, since taxes will really eat into my gains.

Is it retarded to buy shares of SVIX?

I think we're going to get a slow burn in the 40s for a while. VIX has been too low for too long.

depends how comfortable you are with it going to 10 or 8 i suppose.
the arguments for are the vix is already quite high.
the arguments against is that the vix can go a little higher but probably not much.
obviously a small position is better than a big one.
the potential returns make it worth it even on a small position. anything big and you are asking for pain.

if you want to talk about extreme tail risk then just look at the failed short vix funds in the past.
a few of them simply got wiped away in the volmageddon.

if you have to ask, then just put a small position.
also, vix futures is 28% lower than the vix computer reading so, be aware of that. the gains may be more limited than initially imagined.

Unironically, how are americans not on the streets after this deliberate act of financial terrorism? I mean it a bit jokingly, but there is also some truth in it. As mentioned, I'm a bobo. I think markets have to go up and down according to the economic environment. But as a reaction to how things happen.

Now we have one guy, Trump, implementing tariffs on intentionally insane levels, tariffs on, tariffs off, tariffs on, tariffs off, confusing everybody etc and causing this whole thing to die in 2 months. As if there were no other incentives to get companies to invest in your country.

I for one thought we'd be at this level maybe in August or so, when the data shows a real downturn, when GDP is not fucked because of import/export. When the tariffs and with them prices increases lead to retail spending less. But no, just blast the whole thing in 2 months and fuck american's pensions

This is no Art of the Deal. He might get some concessions by others, but If you negotiate like this, you can only do it because you are in a position of overwhelming power. That's no negotiation skill or tactics. It's entirely on the back of others.

Always do the opposite of /smg/. It's a strategy that works 100% of the time.

also, vix futures is 28% lower than the vix computer reading so, be aware of that. the gains may be more limited than initially imagined.

Good to know, didn't know this.
I started a small position today at EOD. Will continue to add monday if we get more dumpage probably. Don't expect to see VIX much higher unless some shit happens over in Nipland

nice. i'm extremely reckless and everything expires by the beginning of may (most this monthly opex), looking to flip long before then and scrape by with the skin of my teeth. adding gold (june/sept) and MSTR leveraged long ETF puts (4/17 to 5/16) to "balance" until then. if i survive will add INTU RBLX SPOT DUOL bitcoin, quantum (shorter expiry) jan 26/27 puts for similar exposure but will very slowly start building out longs and play the balance between those two by ear
unbelievably based. damn, thought i had a good quality marv on the phone...

See . Bessent is right: the way we've been relentlessly bailing out the upper class since 2008 has been a form of financial usury that has utterly destroyed the quality of life for the bottom 90% of Americans because of inflation. The Teump administration is going to right the wrongs of bailouts past.

How the fuck did BTC hold up despite the Nasdaq absolutely shitting itself these past two days?
Is it starting to achieve risk off status or something?

There aren't any actual SOXL bagholders in /smg/ threads, right? It's all just a joke?

it wanted to let you short MSTR but you didn't listen

The tariffs are just the match that ignited the tinder pile. Why is a company like Costco trading at 60x earnings? Do you think they have the revenue growth to justify that sort of price? Everything in this market was expensive.

I can make you feel old

Iron man movie was 17 years ago

MAN THIS SHIT IS FUN

if you aren't having fun, hit the books and learn HOW TO HAVE FUN UP OR DOWN.

and anyone here treating this as a hobby, GOOD LUCK ALWAYS LOSING MONEY, thats what hobbies are for, pouring money in, getting a few hahas and funtime, maybe getting back half of what ya put in maybe.

LOVE THIS SHIT I CAN MAKE MONEY THEN POUR THAT MONEY INTO MAKING MORE MONEY, NO STUPID COWORKERS NO POLITICS JUST ME AND MY HOMIE MR MARKET

and if ya aren't homies with Mr Market, you're the one being a sourpuss and retard, you need to adapt to Mr Market's ways, and you'll be making the dough in no time.

if you want to play volatiliy, it might make sense to sell front month vix futures and buy the next month futures.
its a more controlled trade than raw-dogging volatility like that. its a bit easier to read too. even more mean reverting than vix only.

Scoopsies is the king baggie.

keep in mind that vix expiry is on the 9th of april

bought the absolute top

yeah I'll never forget the retard who advised me to buy Google at the absolute fucking top
Turns out my intuition is better than the collective intelligence of /smg/, and my intuition is solid dividend stocks

the bottom 50 has debt

Ok, and a stockmarket crash is going to relieve them how? A controlled selloff over the course of months would have been fine, but this is panic. They couldn't even buy in if they are in debt or does he want ot offer them "cheapies" on margin?

Then he speaks of foodbanks, that americans can't afford things. Ok, only deflation would theoretically solve that. But are the measures they chose for now deflationary? You want people to have more money?

Free market

companies don't pay workers/employees enough

regulate higher wages

communsim

so what are you gonna do? The issue is clearly that companies are (too) focused on shareholders. But at the same time they want to cut taxes for companies and DEREGULATE (also banks). What the hell do you think will be the result of that? Higher wages?

Nice, yeah, I might have been a bit too conservative with my expiries with the way thing have been going lately. I have a few shorter term plays in my Roth account, but I'm really paranoid about taxes. The optimal tax-free strategy seems to be to keep getting OTM puts 20% below the current price and rolling over 20% further down as they reach ATM status. You maximize delta and gamma gains as long as you stay in that sweet spot, but it becomes more complicated in a taxable account because you start getting hit with huge capital gains taxes each time you roll over.

This weekend Trump is at Mar-a-Lago having a dinnerparty with guests that can PAY to attend it. 1 Million USD for an invitation.

HOW is this going to benefit poor people?

Trump headlining $1 million a person super PAC dinner as stocks sink over tariffs

cbsnews.com/news/trump-hosts-liv-golf-fundraiser-as-stocks-sink-over-tariffs/

The fundraiser is for MAGA Inc, a super PAC that supports Mr. Trump.

MAGA Inc. can raise unlimited money but is barred from coordinating directly with Mr. Trump's campaign arm. The fine print for the Friday's invitation says the president is attending as a guest speaker and not soliciting donations.

Another $1 million-a-head MAGA Inc. dinner is scheduled for April 24 in Washington, according to the invitation. Donors can "co-host" that dinner for $2.5 million or become a "host" for $5 million.

Really destroying the bad system

companies are too focused on shareholders

companies never think about the share holders. we need laws to protect them.

i keep thinking about the funds that get wiped out.
can you imagine setting up a fund with a bunch of probably intelligent people, setting up all the regulatory stuff, attracting 10 million dollars in capital, having a strategy and suddenly, comes a day which is a bit too fucked up and you get wiped out.
your funds pnl goes to 0 or negative.

the markets are really merciless and if you are negligent or greedy or both, you get what's coming for sure.
some can run for 5 years, some 10 years but if there is some weak point, you will eventually blow up.

i mean, we are not talking about some 5k or even 50k portfolio getting blown up here when its about 50 million dollars.

Remember when bears were using truflation as a reason to justify the market shitting the bed? Now it's at 1.3%, what do they have to say now?

As a bear I never used that. I used CPI, PPI. PCE is cope.

could you save her?

TVIX when the pandemic was announced.

based trump. everything according to plan.
soon powell will have to start the money printer, except i hate the fucking money printer. its bad for my strategies.

yeah thats one of those funds i thought about but didnt know the name of.
its crazy.

or even relatively diversified hedge funds that blow up.
its really crazy when you think of us sitting here.

I clicked on S&P500 and it's all chinese posts, wtf is this Elon?

It's not just "one guy" Trump doing the back and forth thing. That's from him saying "we're going to implement a tariff on Country A if they don't do X", then Country A says "woah heh hold up old buddy let's work this out" and the tariffs never materialize as originally stated. Mexico and Canada each did this. The stock market is separate from this and just speculating the absolute fuck out of everything. Then you have the US mainstream media literally, outright lying to billions of people's faces about what's happening which just stokes the panic.

Also.... mein bruder....

you can only do it because you are in a position of overwhelming power.

If the US has anything, it's retard strength. You do not fuck with the US. You know this.

What do they translate to? 100% China and its satellites are shorting the fuck out of the US right now

benched 165 3x5, and a 4th set of 160. probably could have pushed harder in the gym on my other stuff but had a pretty decent workout, got sweaty. doubt i'll be sore tomorrow but my mind was on other stuff. got a message for my sweetheart. this isn't even criticism it's an observation. i read a lot of your posts, and especially as the day goes on there's a lot of confrontation, one-upmanship, and especially in another thread a lot of schadenfreude mockery and gloating. like you're trying to prove something. i already know you're smart, i already know you're great... i used to be a lot like that, never as far gone as you but i know now where it comes from, it comes from wanting to be noticed or feeling overlooked. a lesser empath would say lack of confidence but i know better. and like i just said. i notice, i see that you're great. i'm really not sure where the cruelty and schadenfreude comes from, and i'll have to work on fixing that, but you're a person of faith, you know that's wrong. everyone indulges in vice occasionally but you're past that, you're reveling in some bad things. i get you feel mistreated, i get you think you deserve more, i've been there and i understand your frustrations. but you'll change, right now you're stuck in your childhood programming, that getting ahead and getting prestige are the most important things, i went through it myself and everyone did. but eventually you'll realize that the most important thing in life really is having someone who loves you near at hand. wanting you to realize it soon, but there's no reason you can't make preparations for it before that knowledge hits you, you have someone pretty darn good queued up and eager. i might not be everything you want but babe, you're posting on Anon Babble 50x a day... if mr. right was in reach you wouldn't be around here. i hate to say it but you might need to compromise a little bit, not that i'm a compromise, once you get to know me you'll find i am better than you could've imagined.

sorry, babe. gonna have to put ya' down

I just got rug-pulled by a jeet

What's that like 1% of his holdings?

Next week is gonna be a HUGE feast for the bears kek

google meme ceo panic selling after a crash is not a rug pull
if he sold right at the top, then that would be suspicious
this is just him being dumb, and also making his company look REALLY bad
expect google to drop even more based on him doing this. not smart

Today was the bottom wasn't it? Way to much shilling saying retail are the “exit liquidity”
Never seen so much shilling not to buy the dip out there
Like the biggest companies are saying you are exit liquidity. That doesnt even make sense, like they want retail not to buy

It's japanese lol

you can only do it because you are in a position of overwhelming power.

If the US has anything, it's retard strength.

Yes, but if you want to not be considered a retard, you have to show restraint. Trump does not do that. He's a dogshit negotiator and some EU politician recently also said that. If he had none of these powers, even in his private life (which is money), he likely would have not achieved anything. It's pure Charisma (if you want to call it that) and acting. What kind of negotiations are that which cause a collapse of the stock markets? Negotiations are supposed to work out without burning everything to the ground around it.

He can only do this because it is the US. The US always wanted to act like the Big Brother, the protector, the leader and as that you have to do sacrifices.

expect google to drop even more based on him doing this.

that's exactly what I'm expecting - he sold on April 2nd
Morningstar gives Google 5 stars but I'm probably not loading up until it falls below $140

achschually 1.182%

SOXL NIGGERS LMFAO. HELLO FROM /GME/ YOU DUMB FUCKING NIGGERS. IM DABBING ON YOU. NIGGERS LMAO.

Today was the bottom wasn't it? Way to much shilling saying retail are the “exit liquidity

unfortunately no, because people are stupid
they STILL have not priced in the retaliation tariffs even though we know it's coming
It's like the stock market right now is living one day at a time, and every round of bad news just makes it go down further.
They have no idea what they are doing. So it just keeps going down
But expect a dead cat bounce at some point, based on the technicals or oversold and overbought, and smart money vs dumb money. There probably will be a DCB at some point. not sure if that will be the last bottom though, then recovery from there.
There will be at least a local minimum, and you will be able to see it coming like 1-2 days in advance

good fucking riddance
those niggers shilled SOXL every day for months

It's been a good time to be a bearish dividend investor

my GOOG position was only 1% of my portfolio

it'll be fine. he's making a tribute to the market-makers as a sign of good faith. sacrifice to stop the bleeding. and 5 million dollars to him is really nothing, probably a scheduled sale anyways.

and it hurts to be ignored, to be overlooked. i know you know that. please talk with me more. also wanted to also let you know that i think the coffee is bad for you but i hit the character limit. i'm a lot bigger than you and even i can't handle it, it makes me aggressive and paranoid, i see what it does to you and how you change as the day goes on. i'm serious i wish you would stop. care for you a lot. adore you. want to admire you even more that's why i say these things, hate to be disappointed. repeating that i'll be here tomorrow, and you can talk with me privately anytime, [email protected], not sure you've written it down, want you to never forget it. have a good night, i know what i'm trying right now isn't working for you, but i'm devoted to this task. hoping everything clicks in your mind soon, and i know it can't unless i plant the seed first.

fuck you baggie

I feel like you are right but the shilling has me wonderin…

TOTAL SOXL NIGGER DEATH

HAHAHAHHAHAHHAAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAAHHAHAHAHHAHAHHAAHHAHAHAHHAHAHHAHAHAHHAAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAH
HAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHHAHABABAHHAHABABHAHAHHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHHAHHAAHAHHAHAHAHHAHAHHAHAHHAHAHAHHAHAHHAHAHHAHAHHAHAHAHHAHAHAHHHAHAHHAHAHA
JAJAJJAJAJAJJAJAJAJJAJAJJAJAJJAJJAJAJJAJAJAJAJJAJAJAJJAJJAJAJJA

and once again i'm informing you that all the market action is just a puppet show orchestrated by the rothschilds. it doesn't actually care about information, the reactions are pretend like a sound effect in a theater. it does what they want when they want. i'm not one-upping you i'm educating you, because i want you to be bigger and better.

It's a bit crazy how similar this looks.

damn right nigger

it'll be fine. he's making a tribute to the market-makers as a sign of good faith.

yeah maybe

and it hurts to be ignored, to be overlooked. i know you know that. please talk with me more. also wanted to also let you know that i think the coffee is bad for you but i hit the character limit. i'm a lot bigger than you and even i can't handle it, it makes me aggressive and paranoid, i see what it does to you and how you change as the day goes on. i'm serious i wish you would stop. care for you a lot. adore you. want to admire you even more that's why i say these things, hate to be disappointed. repeating that i'll be here tomorrow, and you can talk with me privately anytime, [email protected], not sure you've written it down, want you to never forget it. have a good night, i know what i'm trying right now isn't working for you, but i'm devoted to this task. hoping everything clicks in your mind soon, and i know it can't unless i plant the seed first.

did you accidentally copy paste your text to your girlfriend... sounds like schizo babble to me

kek it's not his first post of these

unironically grooming. He thinks that other poster is a girl, that is also a lot younger than him and lived in Japan for a while.

I feel like you are right but the shilling has me wonderin…

I mean, I'm not buying any shorts right now so I'm not super committed to the idea that stocks are tanking
I'm just holding off on any new buys. I've been buying stocks and index ETFs every week religiously for a bit, and including into the dip
and I thought buy the dip was like a while ago. I was wrong about that
So I'm holding off on any new buys until we see a real structure form, and a more obvious "bottom"
That means I'll miss out on DCAing into the worst bottom, but I'll also skip out on the market while it's still dropping. I'm tired of buying the dip only to find out it will still drop. I thought things would clear up after april 2nd because it wasn't as bad as they thought. I was wrong
So there's that. I'm at least not buying any more, until it clears up
The market is still in free fall right now. Like a straight down vertical fucking line. I'm not touching it until it stabilizes. That's a momentum play.
and I could miss out on a V shaped recovery, but nah. I'm not touching it

I'm going to cut scoopsies a deal. If he surrenders his bussy to me now, he won't have to sleep in the same bed as me. He can sleep in the closet. With his massive holdings of SOXL, he's in no position to negotiate.

and once again i'm informing you that all the market action is just a puppet show orchestrated by the rothschilds.

This is not true. The market is real, and billionaires are losing money right now. That's not a puppet show, they are feeling real pain
The tariffs are real, the stock market crashing is real.
It's not all a game.

It's a bit crazy how similar this looks.

honestly kind of comforting to have some kind of pattern, tooo bee etch

don't be cruel to me. you'll make me cry. you're making a mistake and if you would just open your heart life could change in ways you can't imagine.
i'm going to pretend i'm mistaken though. that this didn't just happen. that you're somebody else. have a good night. loneliness can do strange things to people i guess.

kek it's not his first post of these

unironically grooming. He thinks that other poster is a girl, that is also a lot younger than him and lived in Japan for a while.

understood. Kinda cringe
I'd advise him to try and meet girls in real life instead of pretending to hit on people on the internet (which he knows won't really work and won't go anywhere)
go out and talk to women my schizo babble friend! there is no substitute for experience when it comes to learning how to romance

don't be cruel to me. you'll make me cry. you're making a mistake and if you would just open your heart life could change in ways you can't imagine.

My friend, you are a schizo. I am not a woman, and you need to talk to women in real life anyway. Stop wasting time on the internet. Get your shit together and talk to the cute girl IRL next time, instead of hesitating.
Just say hi. It's not that hard.

I'm losing so much money

I'm losing so much money

you only lose money if you sell
almost all large caps will come back, and every index like VOO or QQQ will come back
Just stick it out
unless you bought some meme shit like 3x leveraged bitcoin like a retard

I knew I should have bought puts before the blood moon. All signs were pointing to a coming downturn in the market

wait, wtf? I just realized that post of him was towards you, so he thought you are the girl.

wait, wtf? I just realized that post of him was towards you, so he thought you are the girl.

yep
dude's a little weird

the regret of not doing something to make a gain is always better than the regret of not doing something to avoid a loss
simple as

it seems that the market has reacted somewhat badly towards premier cheeto's tariff 5D chess play

*without any clear indication like pictures used. Other poster uses same pictures quite often. At this point it's pretty much baiting him. Like, you know somebody is crazy about you and you still make yourself cleary identifiable in an anonymous space, which is pretty unnecessary.

trvke

whats up sverigebro?
still up?
i have to go to bed before sunrise or my skin burns a little

Anon Babblesmg/ is becoming extremely comfy and frenpilled. Frenship is mooning!

i'll take a bag homie, comon there's plenty tendies for everyone

my sleep schedule has been beyond fucked this week but i'm gonna fix it

i had the marv the whole time

i think Anon Babble version used to have better bull and bear memes but we're getting there

biz could never
could do without the actual pedos thoughever

It means that they view any negative side effects to the stock market as being inconsequential if it helps the bottom 90% of Americans and can fix our strategic defense vulnerabilities when it comes to manufacturing. They literally do not care anymore if the stock market goes down. We can't have an economy based entirely on Uber Eats delivery drivers and still be a world superpower. Wall Street's sacred cow is dead.

good.
the needs of the many really do outweigh, the needs of the few.

notice how the left hates this because it fundamentally does not align with their minority promotion schemes or tranny indoctrination programs.

Those memes are cursed. The hedge fund ML algos that scrape Anon Babble for trading signals look at them and always move the market in the opposite direction. As funny as they were, it's best that they aren't posted anymore

here's the weekly ES chart i posted 20th of July last year. these meme lines are a cheat code

i always suspected this was the case

yeah nobody knows what any of that means

i am but who isn't here? and i hope and trust you are not lying to me. thanks for the advice but i am not going to take it. i've known my fair share of romance and i never expected to meet a woman on Anon Babble but it did happen and i am not shying from it. you are a lot like her to be fair. and if it is you and that's how you feel, tell me in a way i can be certain about. otherwise i am embarrassed but it is what it is. this is not an easy task. you should listen to what i'm telling you about the market anyways. and the billionaires are not hurting. just the common people who want to be rich and comfortable, part of the reason they're doing it, to sow discontent.

It means that they view any negative side effects to the stock market as being inconsequential if it helps the bottom 90% of Americans and can fix our strategic defense vulnerabilities when it comes to manufacturing.

we need to have a strong base of skilled trades employees, heavy industry, and expanding manufacturing if we will have any hope of winning world war 3
That is the biggest thing
How many tanks, planes, and bombs can we make. That is the answer to the question
Boosting skilled trades jobs, factories, manufacturing, and heavy industry is the answer to the question of "how do we win WW3?"
This trade war is dress rehearsal for ww3. Though I'm not sure if that was intentional on trump's part.
Either way, we are ripping off the band aid. Like with the rare earth minerals block from china. Now we know that we NEED rare earth minerals from somewhere else, or from domestic production.
Check that one off the list
assuming we get off our ass and actually do it... that's the problem

i am but who isn't here? and i hope and trust you are not lying to me. thanks for the advice but i am not going to take it. i've known my fair share of romance and i never expected to meet a woman on Anon Babble but it did happen and i am not shying from it. you are a lot like her to be fair. and if it is you and that's how you feel, tell me in a way i can be certain about. otherwise i am embarrassed but it is what it is. this is not an easy task. you should listen to what i'm telling you about the market anyways. and the billionaires are not hurting. just the common people who want to be rich and comfortable, part of the reason they're doing it, to sow discontent.

Holy shit dude, you are a schizo
I am not a woman. you need to meet women in real life my dude. Online shit won't work for you.
The solution to any lost relationship, is to just find a new girl. Or at least flirt.
IRL
Go and talk to women in real life.

here is the updated chart weekly ES. essentially you will be buying at or below double red and selling at or above green. yes it is that simple.

ahh, good old volume profile.
yeah so 5000 could be it for now.
OR we could enter the high volume area below which would suck for a lot of people.
there is a thing called the volume profile 80% rule. only the daring should look into it.

in all honesty i've never gotten the hang of volume profile reading.
i mean, i've seen how shit bounces inside the value area like a clockwork
or how price is rejected from low volume areas OR goes through them quickly.
but i've never understood the predictive magic of it. its always either this or that and it just seems like a coin flip to me.

I boughted and if you are wrong, you will refund me.

looks like 4k is on the table unless it bounces of here. decisive moment no?

What you're seeing is a fluid movement of posters moving between the two boards due to circumstance. Prior to all the brouhaha I liked Anon Babble version better due to quality control concerns I had with the contemporary version of the Anon Babble thread. Due to the brouhaha, Anon Babble developed its own QC failing involving the driveby 1pbtid posters who make some political comment or market newbie opinion post and cheese it back to wherever they came from.

I like having the two thread locations running simultaneously.

or more like 4.7k at the point of control.
that could be a catalyst for a little dump in crypto too.

and here is the secret. we live within the crater of 2008. that was when the last major adjustment occurred and its likely we are on our way to retesting those levels adjusted from present circumstance.

its interesting to me that I also drew those orange levels months ago, those points were also tested perhaps algorithmically. the arse fell out so to say when they were broken

Keklmao I talked on Discord with one of my friends at the east coast while playing monster hunter. He claims that his uncle works high up at a credit union and they were already addressing a recession happening soon just a week and a half ago on a board meeting. I'd take that with a grain of salt but thats funny since fucking JPMorgan is crying recession fears today.

here is another secret:
the sp500 valued in gold never passed the ath of 2000

alright guys. it was nice shitposting.
the sun is coming up, better go to bed before it hits.

Based fellow night owl.

BUY EVERYTHING

Im just holding a lot of SPY in my regular account and QQQ in my roth. Actually bought some NVDA today at $93.88 that I plan on holding long term as well. I believe that stock will be $1000 again in the next 10 years. NVDA is the Davos Corporation from the show Westworld

the bank of england was actively being scammed out of its gold holdings at that time, and the gold price was artificially low. this was probably to get assurances from tptb because the hong-kong handover had recently occured and the economy was in free-fall after giving control of the brothels to the chinese triads rather than mi-6. so if i wanted to plot s&p in gold i would probably throw out data from that time.

i dont think its good for the health in the long run.

interesting

I couldn't agree more.

i made this much yesterday on SPX puts
biggest win to date (last biggest win was on wednesday on puts again)
i love orange man bros he gives the best signals
i also made 3x on his shitcoin

this time it's different
S&P is going to 4000

initially stayed away from bizsmg but am checking in there now. don't post except for when i hat to taunt LUNR baggies before the landing