/smg/ - stock market general

No seriously, it's all a meme right? People aren't actually bagholding SOXL with a cost basis of $17 (fifteen united states dollars), or god forbid, $22 (twenty united states dollars), are they?

Frontrunning:

Taxes are bad, the rich will flee or do this or that

If you can implement tariffs with the justification:

You want to make money in the US? Access to the great great US market? Then you have to locate yourself into the US and manufacture there

Then you can also force taxes with the justification

You want to live here? You want to sell your products here (in case of companies trying to evade)? Then pay taxes and don't you dare raising prices

Oops, I forgot to add about tariffs, inflation and video game markets getting FUCKED will have a tremendous effect on content creators/streamers in general. Not even the muiltimillionaires will be safe.

Are you some kind of failed Streamer or what is your fuckin fixation and issue with Twitch?

boosh

I'm a nobody that likes watching trainwrecks since the MySpace era.

Piper Perry calls anon finally got rekt. Fragility vs. antifragility claims another victim.

fuck i was saving this for when he showed back up

had to call tech support for my bank today and i got a lady with a real deep voice
i think that lady was a feller

What the fuck is his problem?
The stock market is crashing and hes laughing

it's funny and he's tired of pretending it isn't

Im just holding a lot of SPY in my regular account and QQQ in my roth. Actually bought some NVDA today at $93.88 that I plan on holding long term as well. I believe that stock will be $1000 again in the next 10 years. NVDA is the Davos Corporation from the show Westworld

if you're just holding SPY and QQQ, the basic index funds, then you should be fine. SPY and QQQ, or any other SNP500 and nasdaq index etfs will come back
It just might take some time, but you will recover. So don't panic sell

Adjusted for inflation, it took 18 years for the Nasdaq to recover from the dotcom bubble. Don't be married to your bags.

Fink really isn't a good countersignal, he's scum and a liar yes, but he reliably works to direct capital to where the powers that be want it to go, and frankly it's smart to invest in the shit with implicit illuminati backing.

Take bitcoin for example: it is retarded, but if they're going to try to meme it into being an alternative reserve asset because they're butthurt that China used the foolish US/UK gold suppression to load up, then I'm going to bet that they can bluff a lot of dumb boomers into going along with that plan so I'm actually gonna buy some when it dips.

Yeah but when it recovered it 5x'd. Being married to that bag paid off tremendously. Infact selling the bag was the most retarded decision in history.

Holy fuck imagine buying NASDAQ that 16 years it was Depressed. If anything the lesson is buy the bag for max profits and if you sit on cash your a frog getting boiled by inflation.

crash theme
youtube.com/watch?v=xOPjQN6kmBY

Adjusted for inflation, it took 18 years for the Nasdaq to recover from the dotcom bubble. Don't be married to your bags.

but if you started buying after it bottomed, you'd make a fuckload of money once it finally did
the nasdaq from 2005 to 2025 or even just 2010 or 2015 to 2025 was a wild ride and a huge recovery
the broad index ETFs will always come back. They are safer investments because they are diversified.

portfolio down 46%

goodnight smg. Movie night better be good tomorrow. I need it.

Holy fuck imagine buying NASDAQ that 16 years it was Depressed. If anything the lesson is buy the bag for max profits and if you sit on cash your a frog getting boiled by inflation.

it is for index funds
individual stocks on the other hand, yeah they can just go to zero and never come back. more risky in that way
I think it's a lot smarter to buy an index fund "at the bottom" because it's more likely it will actually come back at some point. Some stocks hit "the bottom" and then just die.

>portfolio down 46%

goodnight smg. Movie night better be good tomorrow. I need it.

I got some junk food and fancy shit at the grocery store. comfort food type shit. It was nice

if all the rich sold SPY would be at 100

Refund status?

It's a nice dream but you have no idea what the bottom is on the index. That's why you DCA in over time and take a few swings when it has a big drop and then chase it down.

Some idiot will say muh falling knife but what is the difference if you buy down vs buying up? A bottom could last 1 week or it could last 20 years. Just buy into a good index and marry it.

We’re gonna win so much, you may even get tired of winning.

And you’ll say, ‘Please, please. It’s too much winning. We can’t take it anymore, Mr. President, it’s too much.’

And I’ll say, ‘No it isn’t. We have to keep winning. We have to win more!

All individual stocks go to zero eventually.

not all, some get merged into other stocks

46

youre supposed to use leverage only after the dip

That's why you DCA in over time and take a few swings when it has a big drop and then chase it down.

well yeah
I'm not saying I can time the market, or know when "the" bottom really is
thus the scare quotes

just keep waiting, the merger will eventually go to zero. I do wonder what the longest tracked financial instrument is? probablly something from the dutch "empire" that got transferred to the british.

No, if you bought the top in March 2000 you only would have made a real return of 2X in 25 years. See for yourself:
macrotrends.net/1320/nasdaq-historical-chart

All individual stocks go to zero eventually.

which is why you diversify
either by switching from one stock, to another, which I don't recommend, or just having a bunch of stocks all at once
and muh index funds, probably a broken record at this point, is even better diversification because there's so many stocks in them

If you never DCA and didn’t reinvest dividends

If you never DCA and didn’t reinvest dividends

oh good point. reinvesting dividends does a kind of automatic DCA doesn't it?
just a really small amount, especially for QQQ

there's a very old perpetual bond that financed a dike in the netherlands that is still paying interest. finding a stock is difficult, got varying answers from ai, there's a company on the norwegian exchange that was partially founded in 1288. the dutch east india company was the longest publicy traded, and it said coned and deutsche bank were the oldest but it was counting companies that they acquired i think. plenty of companies have lifespans longer than the average human though, and the dutch and british east india companies did not go to zero, and plenty of others don't, they liquidated their assets and distributed the proceeds.

25yrs of QQQ dividends reinvested would have made a difference absolutely. And you would be a dumbass to buy an index etf at the top and never buy more for a quarter century. I don’t think it has been done in reality.

yields

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novikov_self-consistency_principle

perpetual bonds

This sounds really Jewish.

well to be precise the business get's merged, the stock is cashed out when another company buys it entirely. so it didn't go to zero

The Novikov self-consistency principle, also known as the Novikov self-consistency conjecture and Larry Niven's law of conservation of history, is a principle developed by Russian physicist Igor Dmitriyevich Novikov in the mid-1980s. Novikov intended it to solve the problem of paradoxes in time travel, which is theoretically permitted in certain solutions of general relativity that contain what are known as closed timelike curves. The principle asserts that if an event exists that would cause a paradox or any "change" to the past whatsoever, then the probability of that event is zero. It would thus be impossible to create time paradoxes.

In other words, if the yield curve is a perfect predictor of future recessions, bizarre and unavoidable events will have to take place to cause the recession, otherwise the yield curve never would have inverted in the first place because it would have created a paradox. First covid and now tariffs.

That's just a dragon break from elder scrolls. It's a very convenient interpretation for writing purposes.

boards.Anon Babble.org/pol/thread/502387989#bottom
He’s right, you know. We are larpers. We are cattle dressing as butchers

And you would be a dumbass to buy an index etf at the top and never buy more for a quarter century. I don’t think it has been done in reality.

yes I don't think anyone would do that
but it's a fair point to make that any buys made at the top would not have paid off for quite some time
but all the buys after the crash would have paid off VERY well for the nasdaq, if you kept buying in after it started to recover in 2005

And if I'm being completely honest, I half way believe that we keep seeing this with the yield curve accurately predicting totally unforeseeable economic events because someone on Wall Street built a delayed choice quantum eraser machine that can send small quantities information back in time. Maybe Renaissance Technologies, since their trading desk is supposedly also the, and I quote:

"best physics and math department in the world"

Building a time machine to get the price of coco 5 seconds in the future? devilish.

The events cannot be unforeseeable if the yield curve is 100% accurate in predicting them

Nobody could have predicted covid in the summer of 2019 because the virus hadn't even entered a human host yet. But somehow it got priced into the bond market anyway because somebody got a message from the future.

it's just a coincidence. the yield curve inverts for reasons other than the "trigger" of the bear market

An anon pointed out Petrobras's dividend yield a couple days ago. It has since fallen 6% so its yield is around 20% right now.
There has to be some sort of catch right? Otherwise people would have poured into the stock and its yield wouldn't be so high.

probably means market expects the dividends will decline substantially in the future.

Well, it's a company in an untrustworthy south anerican market

goodnight /smg/. had a wild week and my account is way down, on the other hand, had success at trading and made like $200. learned a lot of stuff about that too. newbie gains i suppose but all this time watching charts is paying off i think, gave me a good baseline. took a big loss today, but also made a big gain and came out profitable in what can undeniably be called a tough trading environment. learned a good lesson today, while gambling can pay off, it's better to see a trend form and ride it for a little bit, rather than trying to catch a big move from the bottom or anticipate something you're unsure of. talking about intraday moves of course.
want to again invite my sweetheart to spend tomorrow with me. had a difficult time in the last thread, a lot of confusion and distress, sent some messages that may have been more hurtful than helpful, although that wasn't my intent at all. really enjoying our morning interactions, can't tell you how glad they make me feel.
hoping for big deals and compromises over the weekend. worried about monday, they can keep this up for a long time and i don't want to see it. some of you do i know that, but remember the boomer is the biggest consumer in the economy, they don't buy goods and services, then the incomes for everyone else dries up and we get recession. and as you grow older and have more invested, the more troubling these drawdowns get, although i understand completely the view that if you're not selling and still acquiring it's just a chance for cheapies, and every investor deserves to get a few of those. i don't doubt that new highs are destined for the future, and not a decade long wait like some people are saying, but probably farther off than i'm comfortable admitting. who really knows though? the market is filled with surprises. happy for people that got this move right, but the people gloating the loudest were probably the same ones seething when it was someone else's turn to win. off to dreamland now.

The vast majority of active traders lose money. Slow down there champ.

A year of gains deleted, huh? Still not selling.

Hmmm they do have a decent dividend history, but it seems like their fuckhuge dividend yield is being calculated using last year's payout. Their first dividend this year on April 22nd is about a quarter of last year's, which makes the dividend yield much more reasonable. Also factor in the declining price of oil and it doesn't look as juicy as 10 minutes ago. It still seems like a really good stock though with a PE of 5 and price to book of 1.25. I might a few thousand dollars worth on Monday.