Smart Money Edition
/CMMG/ -- Commodities, Mining, and Macro General
Gary & Kai
Doomed thread.
How fucked are we?
I mostly post in /smg/ but it's really clear commodities are the first to fall for this upcoming downturn. Other equities will fight the whole way down due to leverage and institutional pressure. I'll probably slurp big oil, oil barons always come out on top
more cheapies for sniggers such as myself
Proper.
opec says drill baby drill
The industrials will suffer, especially PGMs due to the auto tariffs killing off US demand for ICEs.Gold will be fine but it was overbought going into last week so will probably stick around $3k for a bit.
Uranium shouldn't be effected much - demand is inflexible and extremely forward-looking, so even if there is a global economic downturn it only starts mattering if reactors shutdown. Cobalt exports from Congo are still locked down so the price should stay elevated for a while at least. Rare earths should pump due to China's new global restrictions.
It's a shame so many metals are exempt from US tariffs as there would be some nice opportunities for companies inside tariff walls or with lower taxes than competitors.
what about copper?
PGMs will actually go negative this time.
at the very least sibanye might finally die its deserved death.
Probably not good but China's current concentrate shortages and low inventories might keep some air in the balloon. US demand will likely crater given most of their labour force has been deported and steel, aluminium and lumber all got way more expensive.
most of their labour force has been deported
that's not even remotely true
Who needs Gary when we have Bob telling us mining stocks will 50X under Trump.
Who needs Gary or Bob when we have you telling people how stupid they would be to sell mining stocks last Wednesday?
all the latinos are on their way to el salvador, it's literally over for construction in the US
If they are winning why sell?
Also I didn't tell anyone to not sell. I wrote that selling good miners is irrational.
he thinks people can sign up for legit work without showing passport/driver license and Social Security card, then have that verified by DOL.
Cash day laborers don't count.
winning
not my fault you invest in crap
Not mine, bitch.
You did go long on the dong, right?
OK, hoe
Murzyn
Yes, legally black.
do we have to wait MONTHS for every country to strike a deal?
meanwhile we get fucked
So what are people even holding these days? I sold everything when gold was $3130 and silver was $35.
I don't think it matters as long as the wheels are turning and the intent is sincere. There will likely be a cascade of deals being struck.
My shorts are doing well, especially the recommendation from here, but I was retarded enough to buy NEM calls on Thursday and Friday and have paid the price. There's still 5 DTE and anything can happen.
I bought GDX puts on Tariff day and they did a 3× already.
I hate Kai. Garys funny through.
Uranium shouldn't be effected much
I dunno, URNM and CCJ seem to think that all those SMRs and the big tech money is about to dry up. When tech eats shit so does the R&D and future growth, the old plants will be fine though.
52week lows on most of the names I remember when I used to hold and follow U235
The markets do tend to focus on what the US is doing but unless Trump decides to shut down the fleet it's frankly pretty meaningless to the nuclear growth/demand story. All the building is happening in China, India, Japanese restarts, Russia's foreign projects etc. plus a bit of EU/UK stuff.
US Big Tech has done nothing of note apart from Microsoft signing a single power purchase agreement with Constellation. They're not driving shit and neither will SMRs for 10-15 years. Data centres in the US will run on natty gas.
Gold selling off or pumping on open in 2h? Place your bets.
1h 20 min left.
No one dares?
Pussies
Selling off, that's why I sold and went short.
You're going to get creamed. Pity you can't sell your puts until 0930.
Pity you'll hold all the way down again.
the next few weeks will be non stop negotiations and deals.
im liking wttr and pheonix energy. maybe another 15% drop, ill buy back in
Copper cucks?
Copper is not needed anymore.
However bad this will be in the next weeks to months? Should I just continue to hold my junior mining stocks? Unfortunately they are not liquid.
Feeling kind of depressed right now.
i mean, if you can wait it out two more weeks, youll be closer to the years that it may take
what do your valuation spreadsheets tell you after you spent all weekend updating them? you have been doing the work, right?
whats the bottom on oil and will fracking survive under $60 oil?
Idk man you hold NFG...
oil has no bottom, all supply side constraints are artificial and can change on a whim. when the US tried to get cutte with Venezuala OPEC turned on the taps and gave the price a love tap. it's a rigged game and speculators are fools for trying to play.
Dr. Copper says that even if all tariffs are negotiated down, we still have a recession in the pipes.
Silver Chads heading into Monday
i dont
Well would you look at that. I am vindicated within an hour. Will you set your alarm for a bright and early panic selling, or would you rather hold all the way down?
how low can she go?
$40 silver by april will be a piece of cake
Seems like everything will go up in flames. Why play with fire?
Kek